SpaceX Valuation Reality Check: Why $1.75 Trillion Is Detached From Financials

SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 trillion IPO valuation. But the company's latest financial data tells a different story.

According to recent reports, SpaceX recorded a net loss of $4.28 billion in the latest quarter after losing $4.94 billion in 2025. The breakdown reveals a company propped up by a single profitable segment.

Starlink generated $3.26 billion in revenue, accounting for 69% of total revenue. Meanwhile, the space business lost $619 million on an operating basis, and the AI unit lost $2.5 billion. Connectivity is the only profitable part of the company.

This puts implied annual revenue at approximately $18.9 billion with an annual burn rate exceeding $17 billion across non-Starlink operations.

Valuation Multiples Tell The Story

Using standard high-growth tech multiples of 8-15x revenue, SpaceX would value between $151 billion and $284 billion. Even at an aggressive 20x multiple, the valuation reaches only $378 billion.

Compare this to established aerospace giants: Boeing trades at roughly $100 billion market cap on $77 billion revenue. Lockheed Martin sits at $70 billion on $67 billion revenue.

The Morningstar Assessment

Morningstar analyst Joseph Wilkins assessed SpaceX is worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion IPO target. That assessment may still be generous.

A realistic valuation range based on current financials: $200 billion to $400 billion. The $1.75 trillion target assumes the AI unit becomes profitable, space transport scales profitably, and execution succeeds across three hard-tech domains simultaneously.

Starlink alone might justify $100-200 billion as a standalone business. The rest remains a capital incinerator with unclear paths to profitability.

Sources: Morningstar analysis via Joseph Wilkins; SpaceX quarterly financial data